Oct 13, 2026
October Crop Report Surprise
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
After lowering the 2026 U.S. corn yield in the September Crop Report, the USDA reversed course and increased the corn yield 2.7 bushels to 181.2 bu/ac in the October Crop Report. This came as a complete surprise for the market, which had anticipated a reduction of 0.7 bushels. Record high yields are forecast in Arkansas, Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee. If realized, it would be the second highest production for grain on record for the United States.
The 2026 U.S. soybean yield was increased for the second month in a row. Soybean yields increased 0.3 bushels to a record 53.1 bu/ac. Pod counts were below 2025 in 7 of the 11 published states. Despite the lower pod count, record yields are forecast for Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, and Tennessee.
Such a surprising report might indicate there is something amiss at the USDA. The weekly crop condition ratings declined, yet the yield estimates increased. It does not seem possible that those two things can both be correct. The yield surveys ran September 24-October 5 and aimed at an October 1 projection. Parts of the western Corn Belt, including Nebraska and Iowa, received heavy rain on September 30th, and one wonders if the impact of the late-season rains were fully reflected in the October report.
Having said that, the USDA is the final arbitrator of the crop production estimates, and we must accept what they say, at least for now. Eventually, I think the corn yield estimate will decline either in the November Crop Report or the January year-end summary. The soybean yield estimate will probably be little changed in future reports.