Sep 23, 2026
2026/27 Brazil Corn 27% Planted, Production of 138.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2026/27 Brazil corn estimate was increased 3 million tons this week to 138.0 million with a neutral bias. The corn estimate was increased because corn prices are now more attractive and the demand for corn to produce ethanol continues to increase, especially in Mato Grosso, which is the largest corn and ethanol producing state. The competition for corn between the various corn-ethanol producers is helping to support corn prices. Additionally, farmers in Mato Grosso were very satisfied with their 2025/26 corn production.
Having said that, I have to add a word of caution. The planting pace for the 2026/27 safrinha corn in Mato Grosso will depend on the planting window offered by when the soybeans get harvested. It is still unclear if dry weather caused by El Nino will delay soybean planting and subsequently the soybean harvest. There is already talk of potential replanting of soybeans in Mato Grosso due to potential irregular rainfall during October and November. If soybeans do need to be replanted, it could delay safrinha corn planting even more.
The first corn crop in southern Brazil was 27% planted as of late last week compared to 25% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 5% for the week. Cold temperatures and occasional frosts slowed the planting progress over the last two weeks.
Parana - Farmers had planted 43% of their 2026/27 first corn crop as of earlier last week. The crop is 53% germinating and 47% in vegetative development. The 2025/26 safrinha corn in Parana was 95% harvested as of earlier last week.
Rio Grande do Sul - Corn planting in the state reached 60% as of late last week with planting nearly complete in the northwest region of the state. There was some frost damage last week to the earlier planted corn in areas more subject to frost. Farmers are closely monitoring corn leafhopper populations and preparing to apply control measures if the numbers increase.
Brazil corn fertilizer purchases - Brazilian farmers have purchased 46% of the fertilizers needed for the 2026/27 safrinha corn crop compared to 44% last year at this time according to Biond Agro.
In their September Crop Report issued last Tuesday, Conab estimated the 2025/26 Brazil corn crop at 144.0 million tons, which was up two million tons from a month earlier. Their first estimate of the 2026/27 crop will be issued on October 15, 2026.