Oct 13, 2025
Brazil's 2025/26 Soy Acreage Could be Larger Than Expected
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2025/26 soybean acreage in Brazil may increase more than what was originally expected given the current low prices. Conab will issue their first official crop estimates for the 2025/26 growing season on Tuesday, October 14th. In their preliminary estimate, they estimated that Brazil's soybean acreage would increase 3.6% to 49.08 million hectares (121.2 million acres).
Soybean acreage is being supported by a strong domestic demand for soybeans due to the biodiesel blend in Brazil going from B14 to B15 with soybean oil being the main raw ingredient.
Soybean producers in Brazil are also cautiously optimistic given the trade war between the United States and China. After the trade war during the first Trump administration, China turned to Brazil for their soybean needs and they never looked back. The current trade war is even more proof that China views the United States as a hostile trading partner and that they will be sourcing most, if not all, their soybeans from South America.
As of this writing, China has not purchased any new crop soybeans from the United States when normally they would have booked 10-15 million tons by now. China will probably purchase some U.S. soybeans as part of the trade negotiations, but Brazilian farmers are betting that the Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans will remain strong and continue to support soybean prices in Brazil.